The General Risk Analysis Process

Although the operational frameworks and terminology used by the various sectors dealing with risk analysis in aquaculture vary significantly (see Reantaso, Arthur and Subasinghe 2008), they are all also somewhat similar. As an example, the general framework for pathogen risk analysis consists of four major components:

1. Hazard identification – the process of identifying hazards that could potentially produce consequences;
2. Risk assessment – the process of evaluating the likelihood that a potential hazard will be realized and estimating the biological, social and/or economic consequences of its realization;
3. Risk management – the seeking of means to reduce either the likelihood or the consequences of it going wrong; and
4. Risk communication – the process by which stakeholders are consulted, information and opinions gathered and risk analysis results and management measures communicated.

   A pathogen risk analysis seeks to answer the following questions:

1. What serious pathogens could the commodity be carrying? (Addressed by the hazard identification portion of risk analysis, which answers the general question “What can possibly go wrong?”);
2. For each pathogen that could potentially be carried by the commodity, what are the chances that the pathogen will enter the importing country and that susceptible animals in natural waters or aquaculture facilities will be exposed to infection? (Addressed by the release assessment and exposure assessment portions of risk assessment, answering the question “How likely is it to go wrong?”);
3. For each pathogen, what are the likely biological and socio-economic impacts of susceptible animals in the importing country becoming exposed to the pathogen? (Addressed by the consequence assessment, which answers the question “What would be the likely consequences of it going wrong?”);
4. If the importation is permitted without restrictions, then what is the overall risk associated with each pathogen? (Addressed by the risk estimation portion of the risk assessment);
5. Is the risk determined for each pathogen in the risk assessment acceptable to the importing country? (Addressed by the risk evaluation section of risk management); and
6. Can the commodity be imported in such a way that the risk is reduced to an acceptable level? (Addressed by the option evaluation, implementation, monitoring and review portions of risk management, which answer the question “What can be done to reduce either the likelihood or the consequences of it going wrong?”) (Arthur et al., 2004).

   The risk analysis process is quite flexible. Its structure and components will vary considerably depending on the sector (e.g. technical, social or financial), the user (e.g. government, company or individual), the scale (e.g. international, local or entity-level) and the purpose (e.g. to gain understanding of the processes that determine risk or to form the basis for legal measures). It can be qualitative (probabilities of events happening expressed, for example, as high, medium or low) or quantitative (numerical probabilities). 

   Risk analyses, particularly those that are likely to be highly controversial and/or involve considerable stakeholder consultation, that use quantitative methods or that require application of the precautionary approach to allow time for gathering of additional information through research, can require a high level of technical expertise and financial resources, and may take a number of years before a final decision is reached (see, for example, risk analyses conducted by the Australian Department of Agriculture, Food and Forestry (AFFA) listed in Links section). However, in most cases, qualitative methods can be applied to reach sound risk analysis decisions at much less financial cost and within a period of months, rather than years (see, for example, the model risk analyses conducted by the Secretariat of the Pacific Community (SPC) listed in Links section).