Conclusions

Some basic principles that appear to be common to all types of risk analysis involve the broader concepts of common sense, uncertainty, precaution, objectivity, transparency, consistency, scientific validation, stakeholder consultation, stringency, minimal risk management, unacceptable risk and equivalence (Arthur 2008).

   There exists considerable scope to develop and expand the use of risk analysis for the benefit of aquaculture and the social and physical environments in which it takes place. An integrated approach to risk analysis will assist the aquaculture sector in reducing risks to successful operations from both internal and external hazards and can similarly help to protect the environment, society and other resource users from adverse and often unpredicted impacts. This could lead to improved profitability and sustainability of the sector, while at the same time improving the public’s perception of aquaculture as a responsible, sustainable and environmentally friendly activity.

   Although the risk analysis process is not science, it is science-based, and good risk analysts are typically scientists having considerable research experience. A good risk analysis requires adequate supporting scientific information based on high quality research. Such information is most often obtained from the published scientific literature, but unpublished information obtained from colleagues, as well as expert opinion is also used. Additionally, an individual risk analysis may require specific targeted research to address critical information gaps identified during sensitivity testing.

   A key reason for the large amount of uncertainty that is seen during many risk analyses is the general lack of basic knowledge on the ecology and pathogens of aquatic animals in developing countries. There is thus a need to establish the appropriate research capacity and to conduct targeted studies. For example, research to support aquaculture biosecurity should focus on the pathways of pathogen spread, methods for inactivation of infectivity, "barrier" vaccination strategies, etc. Epidemiological research should include investigation of biological factors (identification of at-risk populations, hazards, pathways, pattern of spread, incubation period, nature of the pathogen); risk factors; interventions and methodologies (e.g. surveillance techniques, disease outbreak modeling, use of geographic information systems), etc.

   Risk analysis information/knowledge requirements should be given high priority. Essential research areas, for example, include pathogen studies, information on trade and most importantly, biological pathways for the introduction (release assessment), establishment (exposure assessment) and spread (consequence assessment) of a pathogen. Other important areas of research include studies on host susceptibility; modes of transmission; infectivity, virulence and stability; intermediate hosts and vectors; and effects of processing, storage and transport. For newly emerging diseases as well as some diseases in poorly studied aquatic animal species, basic studies on their pathology and methods for rapid and accurate diagnosis are essential to facilitate accurate risk assessment and biosecurity management. Increased surveillance of wild fish to detect significant disease problems at an early stage is also needed.